Shares of Western Digital (WDC) were sold for investors accounts on August 13th, 2012 at $44. As of close of market on Friday Oct. 19th, the shares were being traded for a mere 34.88. A decline of a full $9.12 or almost 21% in barely 9 weeks. Is the value of the company really less than it was, when the shares recently traded at $44?

We were going to title this article “We’re so smart”, but we thought that there was at least a small possibility that readers would fail to appreciate the depth of our humility if we did that, so we went with the second most obvious title we could think of. Besides after SeekingAlpha’s editors picked up our article “Houston, we've got a problem - Bevilacqua” a few weeks ago and exposed it to their 50 million visitors a month by featuring it on “Market Currents”, then selecting it as an “editors pick” once we did finally submit it to on our own, we began to think that our humility may actually not be as secure as we once thought.
This article is a follow up on “If you must speculate: Force Protection Inc.” published on April 15th, 2011 and is intended as a closer examination of the YTD 2011 FRPT order book, along with some additional speculation on the future growth prospects in 2011 and 2012.
Investment and Speculation are two very distinct activities. Speculators believe they can see into the future, and more particularly, believe they have some sense of future security prices. Investors accept that they do not have any special foresight, and instead focus on an entirely different set of criteria.