Lemelson Capital Management To Host Q4, 2020 Investor Conference Call On January 15, 2021
The call will include prepared remarks, an update on management's 2020 activities, and a Q&A session.
This call is for existing partners and prospective (qualified) investors only.
There are a limited number of lines available. This call is expected to be oversubscribed.
Call-in details will be provided upon registration approval.
The aptly called "everything rally" has sharply driven up prices for junk bonds, copper, oil, bitcoin, used cars, and everything in between.
Significant shifts in market participation by millennials, trading gamification, record new retail brokerage account openings, and margin debt have fueled new equity market highs.
By last November, the frenzied trading had overwhelmed, at least once, the websites of almost every major US brokerage firm. The same month the MSCI All-Country World Index climbed another 12.2 percent – the best month on record. The index has added $30tn in market capitalization since the March lows.
A vital feature of the late stages of economic bubbles is increasingly irrational behavior by investors. For the first decade of the current bull market, already the longest in history, the speculation seemed tame compared to the aftermath of the March 2020 market crash. Now individual retail investors in "tulip-bulb" fashion seem to have gone entirely off the rails – not even a mob of rioters violently storming the U.S. Capitol could slow their feverish buy-everything activity on Wall St.
Sellers of new issues have taken note, bringing once-esoteric "SPACs," that feature dramatically misaligned incentives, to mainstream acceptance.
In the background, the global economy is likely to have contracted 4.4 percent in 2020, a decline not seen since the Great Depression.
Meanwhile, a resurgent COVID-19, driven in part by new, more contagious strains, has continued to cause widespread disruption to economies worldwide while inflicting enormous suffering and death.
Americans are migrating away from urban centers on the eve of a new administration in Washington, driving almost unbelievable gains in real estate prices in suburban, rural, and vacation destinations while pushing housing stocks to record lows.
With Democrats set to take control of both the House and Senate, President-elect Joe Biden may be able to turbo-charge his tax ambitions. Still, the expectation of $2,000 stimulus checks as part of an additional $1 trillion fiscal stimulus is pouring fuel on an out-of-control speculative fire.
What impact will these events have on U.S. income and wealth inequality, productivity, the currency, and equity markets over the long-term?
Are current asset prices and the correlations to increased money supply defensible? What insights emerge from current investor behavior?
A historic bull market-turned-bubble shouldn't be confused with genius.
Management believes capital allocation decisions should focus on deep-value with clear catalysts, supported by aggressive short positions in wildly over-valued and speculative issues.
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