Amvona

If you must speculate: Force Protection Inc.

 
speculation Investment and Speculation are two very distinct activities.  Speculators believe they can see into the future, and more particularly, believe they have some sense of future security prices.  Investors accept that they do not have any special foresight, and instead focus on an entirely different set of criteria. 

It is best not to speculate, since the foundation upon which speculative decisions are likely to be based are invariably little more than “best guesses”.  If the urge to speculate cannot be resisted, consider giving 95% of your funds to a value-oriented investment manager who is well vetted and who you trust.  Keep the other 5% and go to Vegas (at least you’ll have fond memories to make up for the loses).
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How we lost investor's money on Cisco

image_1Losing other people’s money isn’t as much fun as it sounds.  We either bought, or gave directions to buy shares of CSCO on December 3rd, 2010 at $19.09 to folks who trust us enough to let us make some investing decisions for them; they’ve now lost 1.89% on their investment in just about two months.  We have no intentions of selling; on Monday we'll be buying for their accounts.

Up until last Wednesday, February 9th, 2011 these folks were making about 15% on the same investment, since it had only been about two months, as we just pointed out, we were feeling pretty smart, and getting ready to do some bragging about our track record, when Thursday rolled around. Let’s just say it was “a day that will live in infamy” (hopefully nobody has used that line already).

Since we do a great deal of explaining how we make money for others, we thought this would be a good chance, actually the first, to explain how we also lose it.

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SKX and the markets strange reaction to Sterne Agee

going_downSKX fell almost 8 percent on Tuesday after an analyst said it may have overestimated demand for its toning shoes. He downgraded the stock to "Sell."  From Bloomberg:


“Sterne Agee analyst Sam Poser said Skechers has more toning shoes inventory than it can sell as sales of the specialty shoes slow. Poser said he has seen the shoes at discounters Ross Stores Inc., TJX stores, which include T.J. Maxx and Marshall's, and Costco, selling for $39 to $52.99. That puts pressure on Skechers partners like Famous Footwear, where the shoes sell for $59.99, Poser said.”

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Two Great Brands - One on sale. SKX and NKE

 
 
Virtually all marketing promises more than a product can deliver.  This is particularly true in retail consumer marketing.    If Marketers didn’t seek this outcome, we would not be living in such an acute consumer driven society.  On some level, almost all products have the latent and subtle promise of somehow making our life easier, and better.  There is nothing new about this.  It is a promise that always goes unfulfilled in the long run, which is why we have to keep consuming.
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Three Card Monte and other efficient ways of parting with your money

It has been said that there are only two directions in life “the right way and the wrong way”.   This is a simple and true statement.   However, human nature being what it is, we perfect techniques of taking the simple and making it complicated.   If this statement is true, and there are really only two roads, or perhaps it could be said two different directions on the same road, and we discover that we have gone down the wrong one, and that indeed no “fork in the road” lies ahead that will ultimately bring us back to the path we desired, then we come to the realization that we must retrace our steps and begin (seemingly painfully) at the beginning of the journey – it is all the more difficult when we have invited followers.

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Can you say “Chicken Feet” in Russian? The case of SAFM and PPC

Much fuss was made this week over China’s proposed tariffs on American Chicken.  At first glance, the situation is grave; 50-100% premium on imports of chicken from the US.  However, upon closer examination there are two other important data points to consider:a) the Chinese have a particular interest in parts of the chicken that we typically discard (namely the feet and the wings) and are virtually worthless in the US market and b) Russia announced that they would be allowing exports of chicken from the United States into Russia after a nearly  one year ban.

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“640K ought to be enough for anybody…” WDC vs. STX

“640K ought to be enough for anybody…”            

Recently the hard drive crashed on one of our home computers, suddenly and without cause.  When we took it apart to replace the hard drive, we discovered it was a Seagate SATA 500GB / 7200 RPM.  It was a good opportunity to upgrade the operating system, and install a larger drive… perhaps 1TB.  About a year ago when the machine was purchased, 500GB still seemed large, now it seemed small and inadequate, particularly for storing our large and growing collection of home videos.  Cost to replace (without price shopping): $49.00.

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145 Pine Haven Shores Road
Suite 2293
Shelburne, VT 05482

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