Amvona

Listen to Fr. Emmanuel live discussing an update on The Amvona Fund, LP's recent investments as well as thoughts on the markets

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Listen to Fr. Emmanuel live on November 10, 2017 discussing an update on The Amvona Fund, LP's recent investments in the retail sector.

“…honestly, I thought it [Hibbet Sports] was one of the best value investments we had come across in the last seven years… we loaded-up substantially… we bought a huge block of shares between $9.40 per share and $9.50 per share, I couldn’t believe it, the price”

“some of the things people are saying about them [Hibbett] are not really rational, like saying, ‘it’s too little too late for their ecommerce’… why would you bet that they’re not going to benefit from having an ecommerce business? I think they’re going to do their omni-channel business extremely well… it’s an incredibly well-run business, I think it’s going to be a home-run for us… we already have a very significant rate of return…”

Interview includes an update on the fund's stakes in:

  • American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO)
  • Guess (NYSE: GES)
  • Express  (NYSE: EXPR) 
  • Hibbett Sports (NASDAQ: HIBB)
  • Domino's Pizza (NYSE: DPZ)

Commentary also includes an in-depth discussion of the market, macro-economic issues, and an update on the performance of the above commitments since the last interview on August 25, 2017.

Listen to the full interview here.

From the August 25 2017 Benzinga interview:

“…the retail sector has presented some extraordinary opportunities, probably some of the best I’ve seen in many years… we recently started buying into the retail sector, basically at the bottom, we picked up shares in American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Guess (GES), Express (EXPR) and frankly the one we’re most excited about, Hibbett Sports (HIBB)… we’ll keep buying, especially Hibbett… we were buying at $9.40-$9.50 per share earlier in the week… Guess and Express are not as strong…”

The following represents the performance of the subject issues since the August 25, 2017 interview:

HIBB FINL EXPR GES AEO chart

HIBB FINL EXPR GES chart

HIBB FINL EXPR chart

HIBB chart

On the Domino’s short:


“…at the core of the Domino’s bubble is a failure of corporate governance where you are tying the CEO’s pay to stock price performance, so what you get is a highly promotional CEO… the model is very poor, in my opinion a ‘house of cards balance sheet’, where is your margin of safety when your buying that stock?... what you’ve got is a CEO whose been able to leverage up the company at really low interest rates, during one of the longest bull markets in history… so I think it’s going to keep falling…” I think our average short price on that is $187 and we’ll keep shorting it in the interest of full disclosure…”

DPZ AEO GES EXPR HIBB chart 4

NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER:

This information presented expresses the views of the General Partner as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice. The General Partner has no duty or obligation to update the information contained herein. Certain information contained herein concerning economic trends and performance is based on or derived from information provided by independent third-party sources. The General Partner believes that the sources from which such information has been obtained are reliable; however, it cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information and has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of such information or the assumptions on which such information is based.

This material is not intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting or investment advice. Prospective investors should consult their own advisors about such matters. The performance data included represents the net performance of The Amvona Fund, LP, a Delaware limited partnership (the “Fund”), and reflects the deduction of all Fund level expenses, including without limitation brokerage and other transaction costs, as well as legal, audit, administration and other expenses. The performance presented does not represent the return of any individual investor. An individual's net return may differ significantly from the net performance as stated herein due to differences in fee arrangements, and timing of investment. In fact, net returns shown herein may be significantly higher than an investor's actual return. Performance includes the reinvestment of all dividends, interest, and other income. Performance presented from January 2015 to the present represents a hypothetical investor in the Fund whose capital account has been charged (i) a quarterly asset management fee of 0.25%, payable in advance; (ii) a quarterly performance allocation of 25%, subject to a high-water mark and a 6% annualized hurdle rate. Net performance from the Fund’s inception to December 2014 is calculated using the average management fee and average performance allocation calculated among the capital accounts of all Fund investors except for Lemelson Capital Management, LLC, a Massachusetts limited liability company (the “General Partner”), and its affiliates. Results compared to the S&P 500 Total Return Index (the “Index”) are for informational purposes only. The Fund's investment program does not mirror the Index and the volatility of the Fund's investment program may be materially different from the volatility of the Index. In addition, the Fund invests in a different mix of securities and sectors than the Index, which may cause the difference in performance between the Fund and the Index. You cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.

The performance results of Fund should not be considered a substitute of, or indicative of the past or future performance of the Fund. 2016 Returns are estimated and unaudited, and actual returns may vary from the performance information presented above. Estimated returns should not be construed as providing any assurance or guarantee as to actual returns. Actual performance figures are only computed and audited yearly. Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments can go down as well as up. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of principal may occur. An investment in the Fund is subject to a variety of risks (which are described in the Fund’s Confidential Offering Memorandum), and there can be no assurance that the Fund’s investment objective will be met or that the Fund will not incur losses. This information does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any interest in the Fund or other investment product. Any such offer or solicitation may only be made by means of delivery of the Fund’s approved Confidential Offering Memorandum.

Any specific securities identified and described in this material do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for the Fund. The audience should not assume that investments in these securities identified and discussed will continue to be profitable. The Fund currently owns numerous other securities in various other industries and sectors unrelated to these securities. The purchase of these securities only will not create a diversified portfolio. In addition, such securities are subject to losses as an investor may lose money investing in such securities.

 

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Amvona publishes critical articles and interviews at the intersection of Faith, Finance and Economics.

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